2008 Electoral Challenge

Ok, time to have some fun. Because the single worst thing about being here in Zambia is that I'm here during the presidential campaign and election, I obsessively follow campaign news via the internet at every given opportunity. And because I don't talk to my family and friends enough about politics, I'm going to try something.
Announcing...

THE AMAZING 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CRYSTAL BALL PROJECTION CHALLENGE EXTRAVAGANZA!!!

Here's how it works: each of you will submit to me, via email, blog comment, or other communication, your predictions for the following:

1. Winner of the 2008 Presidential election
2. Electoral College totals for each candidate
3. Popular vote totals for each candidate

Picks can also include any explanations (state breakdowns, 3rd party impact, justifications for picks, your biases, etc.). I will keep an updated list and post it periodically. If you'd like your pick to be anonymous (to everyone besides me), email them to me here and I will keep your identity secret.

JUDGING: The persons who correctly select the winner and gets closest to the EC totals will be the winner. The popular vote margin will be the tiebreaker. In the event of identical picks in all 3 categories, I will devise an additional tiebreaker as needed. I will make a set of predictions as well, but I will not be eligible to win.

PRIZE: The winner will receive a prize that is unique and Zambian, as selected by me. I pledge that the prize will be as nice as possible, subject to the catch below...

HERE'S THE CATCH: As of today, there are 51 days remaining until Election Day on November 4th. The day that you log your final set of picks will be noted as your "countdown day," and if you win the value of your prize (measured in U.S. dollars) will match the countdown day on which you make your final choice.

Therefore, you can change your picks ANYTIME YOU LIKE, but each time you do your potential prize value will decrease. This will provide an incentive for picks to be made early, and will ensure that picks lodged later in the campaign (when more information is available) of lesser value.

EXAMPLE: If I were making a pick today, it might look like this:

1. Winner- John McCain
2. Electoral College totals- McCain 275, Obama 263
3. Popular vote totals- McCain 51%, Obama 48%
4. Picks made official on countdown day 51, so if I were to win, my prize would be worth $51

RESOURCES: I have made the categories as simple as possible, so folks can make picks even if they don't follow the campaign as neurotically as I do. Below are links to a few resources that can help you make your selections if you'd like to do a bit of research:

FiveThirtyEight.com- provides polling updates and analysis, plus a projection algorithm updated daily

ElectoralVote.com- provides another projection system using a simpler algorithm

ElectoralProjection.com- a third projection site, whose owner is conservative (in case you're worried about bias from the liberal owners of the first two)

RealClearPolitics- provides polling information and links to news and other resources

Electoral College overview- provides an overview of how the Electoral College works, which can help you in making your prediction for EC totals

270towin.com- provides maps showing how each state has voted in past presidential elections to guide your predictions

I will be actively harassing all of you to make picks, so be warned...I'm a madman.

Over and out.