Zambian Politics

As I mentioned in past posts, the passing of President Mwanawasa has necessitated a special election (or "by-election") to select the new Zambian President. An official mourning period was held for 21 days following the Mwanawasa's death, and ended last Tuesday. Last week while I was in Western Province, the Acting President Rupiah Banda announced that the by-election will be held on Thursday, October 30th (or 5 days prior to the U.S. election).

This is great news for me, as I'll get to follow the campaign here closely, and hopefully go check out some polls on election day (and perhaps monitor them if the U.S. government has any role in that).

I'll try to follow the elections on this blog as time allows, both for anyone who is interested and for myself to keep my thoughts organized. I learned a lot about Zambian politics on my roadtrip to Western Province, but I am still learning who the players are and hw the rules of the Zambian electoral and governmental systems influence the behavior of candidates and officials here.

During the official mourning period, candidates were officially and politically prohibited from campaigning, but of course behind the scenes there was a great deal of jockeying going on by candidates building support to get their party's nomination. Party nominees are selected by party executive committees and not by primary elections, so candidates needed to build support among party officials and politicos to win nomination. Even before the mourning period ended, each of the major parties had announced their nominees:

Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD): Rupiah Banda (or "RB"; Zambians commonly refer to their politicians by two initials for some reason), Acting President and Vice President under Mwanawasa (a member of MMD). Banda is thought to be the front-runner for a variety of reasons, though he does not seem to be nearly as popular as Mwanawasa was. There were many declared candidates for the MMD nomination (i.e. those who filed paperwork to seek the nomination), including Finance Minister Ng’andu Magande and Health Minister Brian Chituwo. I also heard a rumor that President Mwanawasa's wife Maureen filed papers, but it was never confirmed officially.

The nominee is chosen by the MMD National Executive Committee. Most other candidates withdrew their names soon before Banda was announced, seemingly to present a united front and preserve their future in the party. Most MMD members have united around Banda since his nomination was announced.

I've seen small posters up all over town for Banda.


Patriotic Front (PF): Michael Sata. The PF draws much of its support from the Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces. There are some questions about Sata's health, which he is doing his best to dispel in the press. Sata is also fighting semi-publicly with about 20 parliament ministers from his party who are not supporting his candidacy.

Sata is campaigning through the press, accusing Banda of political abuses by personally distributing government-subsidized corn meal and sugar to voters in some areas, and of paying cash to voters in others. Banda claims the government subsidies are an ongoing program, and that he was discharging his duties as Acting President. I've also seen Sata stickers and small posters up in town

United Party for National Development (UPND): Hakainde Hichilema (or "HH"), the UPND President, was chosen unanimously by the UPND National Management Committee to be the party's nominee. HH has several billboards around Lusaka promoting his candidacy, but he is thought to be a longshot. HH has called the MMD corrupt, and called Sata untrustworthy.

Other parties, including the (UNIP), the United Liberal Party (ULP), the All People's Congress (APC), and the Reform Party (RP) have decided not to contest this presidential election, and will support Rupiah Banda

Interesting items from the campaign thus far:

1. The MMD spokesperson publicly floated the idea of other parties supporting Banda and foregoing the election altogether, both to display Zambian unity and strength and to save the costs of running the election. Not surprisingly, this was a non-starter among the other parties contesting the election, and deemed illegal and unconstitutional by some scholars.

2. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) is the body that decided the date of the election and will administer the election. There was some controversy in that the ECZ reports to Acting President Banda, and Banda made the announcement of the election date on television. It is widely believed that Banda had influence over the setting of the date, and the early October 30th election should help the MMD, as they have the advantage of incumbency and the ability to use government to advance their cause. As further evidence, in the same speech announcing the election date, Banda also announced new government interventions to lower gas prices.

3. There is a possibility that UPND and PF will consolidate their efforts to defeat Banda, but it is unclear how this would work or whether it is likely.

4. The election could have been later in November, as the constitution allows 90 days after the death of the president to hold the by-election. The other parties would benefit from more time to campaign.

5. In choosing the MMD nominee, many including former First Lady Maureen Mwanawasa, stated that former President Mwanawasa's preferred candidate was Finance Minister Ng’andu Magande. There was also a bit of press frenzy over a video that Mwanawasa was said to have made as a will and political testament. After some negotiations, the video was released and shown on the national TV station. It contained a plea from Mwanawasa for future governments to continue his fight against corruption (he really was a good guy), but no mention of his intended successors.

That's all for now, more if/as anything interesting happens.